According to a Government website "In 2022, 92.2% of families received an offer from their first choice of primary school and 98.1% received an offer from one of their top three choices. "
The likelihood of getting your first-choice primary school in the UK depends on various factors such as the number of school places available, the number of applicants, and the admission criteria of the school. It is difficult to provide a definitive answer as the likelihood varies depending on each individual case.
If the school you have chosen is oversubscribed, meaning that there are more applicants than there are available places, then the likelihood of getting your first choice may be reduced. However, if you live within the catchment area of the school and meet their admission criteria, then your chances may be higher.
It's important to note that every year, there are families who do not get their first choice of school, but there are usually alternative options available. You may be offered a place at your second or third-choice school or placed on a waiting list for your first-choice school.
If you are concerned about your chances of getting your first-choice school, it may be helpful to speak with the local authority responsible for admissions in your area. They can provide you with more information about the admission criteria of each school and offer advice on the application process.
In summary, while there is no guarantee that you will get your first-choice primary school in the UK, there are steps you can take to improve your chances, such as ensuring that you meet the admission criteria and submitting your application on time.